Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 37.638280 40.963710 44.610581 48.937481 53.972051 59.696797 66.774392
2025-02-16 32.339570 36.702669 41.832038 48.417585 56.819345 67.435741 82.319510
2025-02-23 29.114482 33.925509 39.840495 47.850265 58.762186 73.700986 96.928692
2025-03-02 26.652356 31.649205 37.996262 46.942694 59.773250 78.535846 110.489459
2025-03-09 24.862387 29.984506 36.669050 46.418296 61.046397 83.771300 126.065390
2025-03-16 23.035603 28.086436 34.806096 44.852635 60.443533 85.823584 136.608846
2025-03-23 22.483453 27.823462 35.118207 46.410357 64.806119 96.923696 169.059174
2025-03-30 21.458660 26.823003 34.284290 46.116986 66.074420 102.782769 193.187572
2025-04-06 20.465262 25.793072 33.314960 45.488720 66.642733 107.392331 216.839967
2025-04-13 19.336553 24.502865 31.868975 43.953606 65.382214 108.011581 230.014499
2025-04-20 19.062608 24.415479 32.198535 45.321478 69.580648 121.259344 292.160005
2025-04-27 18.733950 24.222604 32.343681 46.380950 73.357041 134.783519 372.078441
2025-05-04 18.182918 23.694821 31.969801 46.576865 75.607598 145.811646 462.655580
2025-05-11 17.546780 23.009636 31.307679 46.208881 76.664984 154.244275 560.471622
2025-05-18 16.932575 22.325128 30.600400 45.686763 77.304074 161.807231 676.873585
2025-05-25 16.303107 21.587079 29.761245 44.843418 77.098496 166.820245 795.291101
2025-06-01 15.788797 21.003229 29.140952 44.355707 77.637806 174.558705 985.067665
2025-06-08 15.127411 20.164601 28.056302 42.898168 75.696256 173.242105 1064.947702
2025-06-15 15.039603 20.217094 28.459971 44.348321 81.009955 200.674599 1953.203192
2025-06-22 14.654452 19.782336 28.012325 44.075366 81.981283 212.129421 2877.453955
2025-06-29 14.240204 19.285341 27.433021 43.490577 82.058752 220.027484 4185.709471
2025-07-06 13.708837 18.583608 26.470785 42.060277 79.704606 216.078619 4641.408903
2025-07-13 13.644978 18.630359 26.809359 43.334852 84.904507 251.381176 26990.898472